COVID-19 iri kuwedzera zvakare muChina, nekumiswa kakawanda uye kugadzirwa kwezvinhu munzvimbo dzakatarwa munyika yese, zvichikanganisa zvakanyanya maindasitiri ese. Parizvino, tinogona kutarisa kukanganiswa kweCOVID-19 paindasitiri yebasa, senge kuvharwa kweindasitiri dzekubika, dzekutengesa nedzevaraidzo, izvo zviri zvakare kukanganisa kuri pachena munguva pfupi, asi munguva yepakati, njodzi yekugadzira zvinhu yakakura.
Chinotakura indasitiri yebasa vanhu, vanogona kudzoserwa kana COVID-19 yapera. Chinotakura indasitiri yekugadzira zvinhu zvinhu, zvinogona kuchengetedzwa nemabhuku kwenguva pfupi. Zvisinei, kuvharwa kwakakonzerwa neCOVID-19 kuchakonzera kushomeka kwezvinhu kwenguva yakati, izvo zvichatungamira mukutama kwevatengi nevatengesi. Mhedzisiro yenguva yepakati yakakura kupfuura iyo yeindasitiri yebasa. Tichifunga nezvekumukazve kukuru kweCOVID-19 kuEast China, South China, kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva nedzimwe nzvimbo dzenyika, mhando yemhedzisiro yakakonzerwa neindasitiri yekugadzira munzvimbo dzakasiyana siyana, ndeapi matambudziko achatarisana nemakambani ari kumusoro, pakati nepasi, uye kana mhedzisiro yenguva yepakati nerefu ichawedzerwa. Tevere, tichaiongorora imwe neimwe kuburikidza nekutsvagisa kwaMysteel kwazvino paindasitiri yekugadzira.
Ⅰ Macro Pfupi
PMI yekugadzira muna Kukadzi 2022 yaive 50.2%, yakakwira ne0.1 muzana kubva pamwedzi wapfuura. Nhamba yemabasa ebhizinesi asiri ekugadzira yaive 51.6 muzana, yakakwira ne0.5 muzana kubva pamwedzi wapfuura. PMI yakabatana yaive 51.2 muzana, yakakwira ne0.2 muzana kubva pamwedzi wapfuura. Pane zvikonzero zvitatu zvikuru zvakaita kuti PMI idzokere shure. Chekutanga, China ichangobva kuunza nhevedzano yemitemo nematanho ekusimudzira kukura kwakasimba kwezvikamu zvemaindasitiri nemabasa, izvo zvakavandudza kudiwa uye kuwedzera kweodha netarisiro yemabasa ebhizinesi. Chechipiri, kuwedzera kwekudyara muzvivakwa zvitsva uye kukurumidza kuburitswa kwezvibvumirano zvakakosha zvakaita kuti indasitiri yekuvaka idzoke zvakanyanya. Chechitatu, nekuda kwemhedzisiro yehondo yeRussia neUkraine, mutengo wemafuta asina kucheneswa nezvimwe zvinhu zvemaindasitiri zvakakwira munguva pfupi yapfuura, zvichikonzera kukwira kwenhamba yemitengo. Nhamba nhatu dzePMI dzakakwira, zvichiratidza kuti simba riri kudzoka mushure meMutambo weChirimo.
Kudzoka kwenhamba yemirairo mitsva pamusoro pemutsetse wekuwedzera kunoratidza kuvandudzika kwekudiwa uye kudzoreredzwa kwekudiwa kwemuno. Nhamba yemirairo mitsva yekutengesera kunze yakakwira kwemwedzi wechipiri yakatevedzana, asi yakaramba iri pasi pemutsetse ichiparadzanisa kuwedzera kubva pakuderera.
Nhamba yezvinodiwa zvekugadzirwa kwezvinhu nemabasa ebhizinesi yakakwira kwemwedzi mina yakatevedzana uye yakakwira zvakanyanya mugore rinosvika rimwe chete. Zvisinei, mabasa anotarisirwa ekushanda haasati ashandurwa kuita mabasa ekugadzira nekushanda, uye nhamba yezvigadzirwa yadzikira nemwaka. Makambani achiri kusangana nematambudziko akadai sekukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu zvekugadzira uye kushaikwa kwemari.
Komiti yeFederal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) neChitatu yakasimudza mwero wemubereko wehurumende ne25 basis points kusvika pa0.25%-0.50% kubva pa0% kusvika pa0.25%, kuwedzera kwekutanga kubva muna Zvita 2018.
Ⅱ Indasitiri yechiteshi chepasi
1. Kushanda kwakasimba kweindasitiri yesimbi
Sekureva kweMysteel research, kubva munaKurume 16, indasitiri yekuvaka simbi yakawedzera ne78.20%, mazuva ekushandisa zvinhu zvakabikwa akaderera ne10.09%, kushandiswa kwezvinhu zvakabikwa zuva nezuva kwakawedzera ne98.20%. Pakutanga kwaKurume, kudzoreredzwa kwezvinodiwa neindasitiri yese muna Kukadzi hakuna kunaka sezvaitarisirwa, uye musika wakanonoka kudziya. Kunyangwe kutumira zvinhu kwakakanganiswa zvishoma nedenda mune dzimwe nzvimbo munguva pfupi yapfuura, maitiro ekugadzirisa nekutanga zvinhu akakurumidza zvikuru, uye maodha akaratidzawo kudzokororwa kukuru. Zvinotarisirwa kuti musika ucharamba uchivandudzwa munguva inotevera.
2. Odha dzeindasitiri yemichina dzinotanga kudziya zvishoma nezvishoma
Sekureva kweMysteel research, kubva musi wa16 Kurume, huwandu hwezvinhu zvakagadziriswa muindasitiri yemichinayakawedzera ne78.95% mwedzi wega wega, huwandu hwezvinhu zviripo hwakawedzera zvishoma ne4.13%, uye avhareji yekushandiswa kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa zuva nezuva yakawedzera ne71.85%. Sekureva kweongororo yaMysteel pamabhizinesi emichina, maodha ari muindasitiri iyi akanaka parizvino, asi akanganiswa nekuongororwa kwe nucleic acid mune mamwe mafekitori, mafekitori akavharwa muGuangdong, Shanghai, Jilin nedzimwe nzvimbo dzakakanganiswa zvakanyanya, asi kugadzirwa chaiko hakuna kukanganiswa, uye zvigadzirwa zvakawanda zvakapedzwa zvakaiswa mudura kuti zviburitswe mushure mekuvharwa. Saka, kudiwa kweindasitiri yemichina hakuna kukanganiswa parizvino, uye maodha anotarisirwa kuwedzera zvakanyanya mushure mekunge kuvharwa kwaburitswa.
3. Indasitiri yemidziyo yemumba yose inofamba zvakanaka
Sekureva kweMysteel research, kubva munaKurume 16, huwandu hwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa muindasitiri yemidziyo yemumba hwakawedzera ne4.8%, huwandu hwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa hwakaderera ne17.49%, uye avhareji yekushandiswa kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa zuva nezuva yakawedzera ne27.01%. Sekureva kweongororo yakaitwa muindasitiri yemidziyo yemumba, zvichienzaniswa nekutanga kwaKurume, maodha emidziyo yemumba aripo atanga kudziya, musika unokanganiswa nemwaka, mamiriro ekunze, kutengesa uye zvinhu zviri muchikamu chekupora zvishoma nezvishoma. Panguva imwe chete, indasitiri yemidziyo yemumba inotarisa pakutsvaga nekuvandudza nguva dzose kuti igadzire zvigadzirwa zvakavimbika uye zvinoshanda zvakanyanya, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti zvigadzirwa zvinoshanda uye zvine hungwaru zvichaonekwa munguva inotevera.
Ⅲ Mhedzisiro uye tarisiro yemabhizinesi ari pasi pemvura paCOVID-19
Zvichienderana neongororo yaMysteel, kune matambudziko akati wandei anotarisana nedambudziko iri:
1. Kukanganiswa kwemitemo; 2. Kushomeka kwevashandi; 3. Kushomeka kwekushanda zvakanaka; 4. Kumanikidzwa kwemari; 5. Matambudziko ekufambisa
Kana tichitarisa nguva, zvichienzaniswa negore rapfuura, zvinotora mazuva gumi nemaviri kusvika gumi nemashanu kuti matambudziko ari pasi pemvura atangezve kushanda, uye zvinotora nguva yakareba kuti mashandiro adzoke. Chinonyanya kunetsa idambudziko riripo pakugadzirwa kwezvinhu, kunze kwezvikamu zvine chekuita nezvivakwa, zvichave zvakaoma kuona chero shanduko yakakosha munguva pfupi.
Ⅳ Pfupiso
Zvose zvataurwa, kukanganiswa kwedenda iri kuripo kwakaderera kana tichienzanisa negore ra2020. Kubva mumamiriro ekugadzirwa kwesimbi, midziyo yemumba, michina nedzimwe nzvimbo dzemagetsi, zvinhu zviripo parizvino zvakadzokera pazvakajairika zvishoma nezvishoma kubva padanho rakaderera pakutanga kwemwedzi, avhareji yekushandiswa kwezvinhu zvakagadzirwa zuva nezuva yakawedzerawo zvakanyanya zvichienzaniswa nekutanga kwemwedzi, uye mamiriro eodha akwira zvakanyanya. Pamwe chete, kunyangwe indasitiri yemagetsi yakakanganiswa neCOVID-19 munguva pfupi yapfuura, kukanganiswa kwacho hakuna kukosha, uye kukurumidza kupora mushure mekuvhurwa kunogona kupfuura zvaitarisirwa.
Nguva yekutumira: Chikunguru-21-2022
