COVID-19 yongeye kwiyongera mu Bushinwa, aho ihagarikwa ry’ibikorwa n’ibicuruzwa mu bice byabugenewe hirya no hino mu gihugu, bigira ingaruka zikomeye ku nganda zose. Muri iki gihe, dushobora kwita ku ngaruka za COVID-19 ku nganda zitanga serivisi, nko gufunga inganda zitanga amafunguro, ubucuruzi n’imyidagaduro, ari nabyo bigaragara cyane mu gihe gito, ariko mu gihe giciriritse, ibyago byo gukora inganda birakomeye.
Ubwikorezi bw'inganda zitanga serivisi ni abantu, bashobora kugaruzwa COVID-19 imaze kurangira. Ubwikorezi bw'inganda zitanga serivisi ni ibicuruzwa, bishobora kubungabungwa hakoreshejwe ububiko bw'ibikoresho mu gihe gito. Ariko, ihagarikwa ryatewe na COVID-19 rizatera ibura ry'ibicuruzwa mu gihe runaka, bizatuma abakiriya n'abatanga serivisi bimuka. Ingaruka z'igihe giciriritse ni nyinshi kurusha iz'inganda zitanga serivisi. Ukurikije igaruka rikomeye rya COVID-19 mu Burasirazuba bw'Ubushinwa, mu Majyepfo y'Ubushinwa, mu majyaruguru y'uburasirazuba n'ahandi mu gihugu, ingaruka zatewe n'inganda zitanga serivisi mu turere dutandukanye, ni izihe mbogamizi zizahura nazo mu turere two hejuru, two hagati n'utwo hasi, ndetse niba ingaruka z'igihe giciriritse n'igihe kirekire zizongera kwiyongera. Ubutaha, tuzabisesengura kimwe kimwe binyuze mu bushakashatsi bwa Mysteel buherutse gukorwa ku nganda zitanga serivisi.
Ⅰ Macro Brief
PMI y’inganda muri Gashyantare 2022 yari 50.2%, yiyongereyeho amanota 0.1 ku ijana ugereranyije n’ukwezi gushize. Igipimo cy’ibikorwa by’ubucuruzi bidashingiye ku nganda cyari 51.6 ku ijana, cyiyongereyeho amanota 0.5 ku ijana ugereranyije n’ukwezi gushize. PMI yari 51.2 ku ijana, yiyongereyeho amanota 0.2 ku ijana ugereranyije n’ukwezi gushize. Hari impamvu eshatu z’ingenzi zatumye PMI yongera kuzamuka. Iya mbere, Ubushinwa buherutse gushyiraho urukurikirane rwa politiki n’ingamba zo guteza imbere iterambere rirambye ry’inganda na serivisi, ibyo bikaba byarazamuye icyifuzo ndetse bikongera ibyo abantu bifuza gukora n’ibyo ubucuruzi bwiteze. Iya kabiri, ishoramari ryinshi mu bikorwa remezo bishya no kwihutisha gutanga impapuro mvunjwafaranga zidasanzwe byatumye inganda z’ubwubatsi zizamuka cyane. Iya gatatu, bitewe n’ingaruka z’amakimbirane hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine, igiciro cya peteroli n’ibindi bikoresho fatizo by’inganda byazamutse vuba aha, bituma igipimo cy’ibiciro kizamuka. Ibipimo bitatu bya PMI byazamutse, bigaragaza ko imbaraga zirimo kugaruka nyuma y’iserukiramuco ry’impeshyi.
Kugaruka kw'ibipimo bishya by'ibicuruzwa hejuru y'umurongo wo kwagura ibicuruzwa bigaragaza ko icyifuzo cyazamutse kandi ko icyifuzo cy'imbere mu gihugu kirimo kuzamuka. Ibipimo by'ibicuruzwa bishya byoherezwa mu mahanga byazamutse mu kwezi kwa kabiri kwikurikiranya, ariko biguma munsi y'umurongo utandukanya kwagura n'igabanuka ry'ibicuruzwa.
Igipimo cy’ibiteganijwe ku musaruro w’inganda n’ibikorwa by’ubucuruzi cyazamutse mu mezi ane yikurikiranya, kigera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu gihe cy’umwaka umwe hafi. Ariko, ibikorwa by’imikorere byari byitezwe ntibirashyirwa mu bikorwa by’ingenzi by’umusaruro n’ibikorwa, kandi igipimo cy’umusaruro cyaragabanutse mu bihe by’umwaka. Ibigo biracyafite ingorane nko kuzamuka kw’ibiciro by’ibikoresho fatizo n’amafaranga yinjira make.
Komite Ishinzwe Isoko Rifunguye rya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika (FOMC) ku wa Gatatu yazamuye igipimo cy’inyungu ku rwego rwa leta ku manota 25 kuva kuri 0% kugeza kuri 0.25%, ikaba ari yo zamuka rya mbere kuva mu Ukuboza 2018.
Ⅱ Inganda zikora ku mashini zimanuka
1. Imikorere ikomeye muri rusange y'inganda zikora ibyuma
Dukurikije ubushakashatsi bwa Mysteel, kugeza ku ya 16 Werurwe, ububiko bw'ibikoresho by'ibanze by'icyuma muri rusange bwiyongereyeho 78.20%, iminsi y'ibikoresho by'ibanze biboneka yagabanutseho 10.09%, ikoreshwa ry'ibikoresho by'ibanze ku munsi ryiyongereyeho 98.20%. Mu ntangiriro za Werurwe, izamuka ry'ibikenewe mu nganda za nyuma muri Gashyantare ntiryari ryiza nkuko byari byitezwe, kandi isoko ryatinze gushyuha. Nubwo kohereza ibicuruzwa byagizweho ingaruka nke n'icyorezo mu turere tumwe na tumwe vuba aha, inzira yo gutunganya no gutangiza ibikorwa byihutishijwe cyane, kandi amabwiriza nayo yagaragaje ko yazamutse cyane. Biteganijwe ko isoko rizakomeza gutera imbere mu gihe cya nyuma.
2. Amabwiriza y'inganda z'imashini agenda yihuta buhoro buhoro
Dukurikije ubushakashatsi bwa Mysteel, kugeza ku ya 16 Werurwe, ububiko bw'ibikoresho fatizo biri muinganda z'imashiniyiyongereyeho 78.95% buri kwezi, umubare w'ibikoresho fatizo biboneka wiyongereyeho gato 4.13%, kandi impuzandengo y'ikoreshwa ry'ibikoresho fatizo buri munsi yiyongereyeho 71.85%. Nk'uko ubushakashatsi bwa Mysteel ku bigo by'imashini bubigaragaza, amabwiriza mu nganda ari meza muri iki gihe, ariko yagizweho ingaruka n'ibizamini bya aside nucleique byafunzwe mu nganda zimwe na zimwe, inganda zafunzwe muri Guangdong, Shanghai, Jilin n'utundi turere twagizweho ingaruka zikomeye, ariko umusaruro nyawo ntabwo wahungabanye, kandi ibyinshi mu bicuruzwa byarangiye byashyizwe mu bubiko kugira ngo bisohorwe nyuma yo gufungwa. Kubwibyo, icyifuzo cy'inganda z'imashini ntikibangamiwe muri iki gihe, kandi byitezwe ko amabwiriza aziyongera cyane nyuma yo gufungwa.
3. Inganda zikora ibikoresho byo mu rugo muri rusange zikora neza
Dukurikije ubushakashatsi bwa Mysteel, kugeza ku ya 16 Werurwe, ububiko bw'ibikoresho fatizo mu nganda zikora ibikoresho byo mu rugo bwiyongereyeho 4.8%, umubare w'ibikoresho fatizo biboneka wagabanutseho 17.49%, naho impuzandengo y'ikoreshwa ry'ibikoresho fatizo bya buri munsi yiyongereyeho 27.01%. Dukurikije ubushakashatsi bwakozwe ku nganda zikora ibikoresho byo mu rugo, ugereranije n'intangiriro za Werurwe, ibyo ibikoresho byo mu rugo byatumijwe ubu byatangiye gushyuha, isoko rigizweho ingaruka n'ibihe by'izuba, ikirere, kugurisha n'ibikoresho biri mu cyiciro cyo kugaruka buhoro buhoro. Muri icyo gihe, inganda zikora ibikoresho byo mu rugo zibanda ku bushakashatsi n'iterambere rihoraho kugira ngo hakorwe ibicuruzwa byizewe kandi bikora neza, kandi byitezwe ko ibicuruzwa byiza kandi by'ubwenge bizagaragara mu gihe kizaza.
Ⅲ Ingaruka n'ibitegerejwe ku bigo bikiri inyuma y'iyi gahunda kuri COVID-19
Dukurikije ubushakashatsi bwa Mysteel, hari ibibazo byinshi bihura nabyo mu gice gikurikira:
1. Ingaruka za politiki; 2. Abakozi badahagije; 3. Kugabanuka k'imikorere; 4. Igitutu cy'amafaranga; 5. Ibibazo by'ubwikorezi
Ugereranyije n'umwaka ushize, bifata iminsi 12-15 kugira ngo ingaruka zo mu ntangiriro zisubire ku kazi, kandi bifata igihe kirekire kugira ngo imikorere irusheho kuba myiza. Igiteye impungenge kurushaho ni ingaruka ku nganda, usibye inzego zijyanye n'ibikorwa remezo, bizagorana kubona impinduka zifatika mu gihe gito.
Ⅳ Incamake
Muri rusange, ingaruka z'icyorezo kirimo kuba nke ugereranyije n'umwaka wa 2020. Ukurikije uko ibyuma, ibikoresho byo mu rugo, imashini n'izindi nganda zikora ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki byari bimeze, ububiko buriho bwagiye bugaruka buhoro buhoro buva ku rwego rwo hasi mu ntangiriro z'ukwezi, impuzandengo y'ikoreshwa ry'ibikoresho fatizo bya buri munsi nayo yariyongereye cyane ugereranije n'intangiriro z'ukwezi, kandi imiterere y'ibicuruzwa yariyongereye cyane. Muri rusange, nubwo inganda zikora ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki zagizweho ingaruka na COVID-19 vuba aha, ingaruka muri rusange ntabwo zigaragara cyane, kandi umuvuduko wo kugarura umusaruro nyuma yo gufungura ibikoresho ushobora kurenza uko byari byitezwe.
Igihe cyo kohereza: 21 Nyakanga-2022
