COVID-19 ikukweranso ku China, ndipo kuyimitsidwa mobwerezabwereza ndi kupanga zinthu m'malo osankhidwa mdziko lonselo, zomwe zikukhudza kwambiri mafakitale onse. Pakadali pano, titha kuyang'ana kwambiri momwe COVID-19 imakhudzira makampani opereka chithandizo, monga kutsekedwa kwa makampani opereka chakudya, ogulitsa ndi zosangalatsa, komwe ndi komwe kumakhudza kwambiri pakanthawi kochepa, koma pakapita nthawi, chiopsezo chopanga zinthu chimakhala chachikulu.
Wonyamula katundu wa makampani opanga ndi anthu, omwe angathe kubwezedwa COVID-19 itatha. Wonyamula katundu wa makampani opanga ndi katundu, yemwe angathe kusungidwa ndi zinthu zomwe zili m'sitolo kwa kanthawi kochepa. Komabe, kutsekedwa komwe kwachitika chifukwa cha COVID-19 kudzapangitsa kuti katundu asowe kwa kanthawi, zomwe zidzapangitsa kuti makasitomala ndi ogulitsa asamuke. Zotsatira zapakati ndi zazikulu kuposa za makampani opanga ntchito. Poganizira za kubwereranso kwakukulu kwa COVID-19 ku East China, South China, kumpoto chakum'mawa ndi madera ena a dzikolo, kodi makampani opanga zinthu akhudzidwa bwanji m'madera osiyanasiyana, ndi mavuto ati omwe adzakumane nawo kuchokera kumtunda, pakati ndi pansi, komanso ngati zotsatira zapakati ndi nthawi yayitali zidzakulitsidwa. Kenako, tidzasanthula chimodzi ndi chimodzi kudzera mu kafukufuku waposachedwa wa Mysteel pamakampani opanga zinthu.
Ⅰ Macro Brief
PMI yopanga zinthu mu February 2022 inali 50.2%, kukwera ndi 0.1 peresenti poyerekeza ndi mwezi watha. Chiyerekezo cha ntchito zamabizinesi osapanga zinthu chinali 51.6 peresenti, kukwera ndi 0.5 peresenti poyerekeza ndi mwezi watha. PMI yophatikizana inali 51.2 peresenti, kukwera ndi 0.2 peresenti poyerekeza ndi mwezi watha. Pali zifukwa zitatu zazikulu zomwe PMI inabwereranso. Choyamba, China posachedwapa yakhazikitsa mfundo ndi njira zolimbikitsira kukula kosalekeza kwa magawo a mafakitale ndi mautumiki, zomwe zakweza kufunikira ndi kukwera kwa maoda ndi ziyembekezo za ntchito zamabizinesi. Chachiwiri, kuwonjezeka kwa ndalama mu zomangamanga zatsopano komanso kutulutsidwa mwachangu kwa ma bond apadera kunapangitsa kuti makampani omanga nyumba ayambenso kugwira ntchito. Chachitatu, chifukwa cha mavuto a mkangano wa Russia ndi Ukraine, mtengo wa mafuta osaphika ndi zinthu zina zopangira mafakitale unakwera posachedwapa, zomwe zinapangitsa kuti chiŵerengero cha mitengo chikwere. Ma index atatu a PMI anakwera, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti mphamvu ikubwerera pambuyo pa Chikondwerero cha Spring.
Kubweza kwa chiŵerengero cha maoda atsopano pamwamba pa mzere wokulitsa kumasonyeza kuti kufunikira kwawonjezeka komanso kubwereranso kwa kufunikira kwa mkati. Chiŵerengero cha maoda atsopano otumizira kunja chinakwera kwa mwezi wachiwiri motsatizana, koma chinakhalabe pansi pa mzere wolekanitsa kukulitsa ndi kuchepa.
Chiwerengero cha zinthu zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa pakupanga ndi ntchito zamabizinesi chinakwera kwa miyezi inayi yotsatizana ndipo chinafika pamlingo watsopano pafupifupi chaka chimodzi. Komabe, ntchito zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa sizinasinthidwe kukhala zochitika zazikulu zopanga ndi ntchito, ndipo chiwerengero cha zinthu zomwe zapangidwa chatsika malinga ndi nyengo. Mabizinesi akadali ndi mavuto monga kukwera kwa mitengo ya zinthu zopangira ndi kuchepa kwa ndalama.
Komiti Yoyang'anira Msika Yotseguka ya Federal Reserve (FOMC) Lachitatu idakweza chiwongola dzanja cha federal ndi ma basis point 25 kufika pa 0.25% -0.50% kuchokera pa 0% mpaka 0.25%, kuwonjezeka koyamba kuyambira Disembala 2018.
Ⅱ Makampani otsikira pansi
1. Kugwira ntchito mwamphamvu kwa makampani opanga zitsulo
Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa Mysteel, kuyambira pa 16 Marichi, makampani opanga zitsulo zonse zopanga zitsulo adakwera ndi 78.20%, masiku omwe zinthu zopanga zitsulo zinalipo adatsika ndi 10.09%, kugwiritsa ntchito zinthu zopanga tsiku ndi tsiku kudakwera ndi 98.20%. Kumayambiriro kwa Marichi, kuyambiranso kwa kufunikira kwa mafakitale otsiriza mu February sikunali bwino monga momwe amayembekezera, ndipo msika unachedwa kutentha. Ngakhale kutumiza kunakhudzidwa pang'ono ndi mliriwu m'malo ena posachedwapa, njira yokonza ndi kuyambitsa idakulitsidwa kwambiri, ndipo maoda adawonetsanso kukwera kwakukulu. Zikuyembekezeka kuti msika upitilizabe kusintha mtsogolo.
2. Maoda a makampani opanga makina akuwonjezeka pang'onopang'ono
Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa Mysteel, kuyambira pa 16 Marichi, zinthu zopangira zida zogwiritsidwa ntchito mumakampani opanga makinaKuwonjezeka ndi 78.95% pamwezi, chiwerengero cha zipangizo zopangira zomwe zilipo chinawonjezeka pang'ono ndi 4.13%, ndipo kuchuluka kwa zipangizo zopangira zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito tsiku ndi tsiku kunawonjezeka ndi 71.85%. Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa Mysteel pa makampani opanga makina, maoda m'makampani opanga makina ndi abwino pakadali pano, koma akukhudzidwa ndi mayeso otsekedwa a nucleic acid m'mafakitale ena, mafakitale atsekedwa ku Guangdong, Shanghai, Jilin ndi madera ena omwe akhudzidwa kwambiri, koma kupanga kwenikweni sikunakhudzidwe, ndipo zinthu zambiri zomalizidwa zasungidwa kuti zitulutsidwe pambuyo potseka. Chifukwa chake, kufunikira kwa makampani opanga makina sikunakhudzidwe pakadali pano, ndipo maoda akuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka kwambiri pambuyo potseka.
3. Makampani onse ogwiritsira ntchito zipangizo zapakhomo akuyenda bwino
Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa Mysteel, kuyambira pa 16 Marichi, kuchuluka kwa zipangizo zopangira zida zapakhomo kunakwera ndi 4.8%, kuchuluka kwa zipangizo zopangira zida zapakhomo kunachepa ndi 17.49%, ndipo kuchuluka kwa zipangizo zopangira tsiku ndi tsiku kunawonjezeka ndi 27.01%. Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa makampani opanga zida zapakhomo, poyerekeza ndi kumayambiriro kwa Marichi, maoda a zida zapakhomo ayamba kutentha, msika ukukhudzidwa ndi nyengo, nyengo, malonda ndi zinthu zomwe zilipo zili mu gawo loyambiranso pang'onopang'ono. Nthawi yomweyo, makampani opanga zida zapakhomo amayang'ana kwambiri kafukufuku ndi chitukuko chopitilira kuti apange zinthu zodalirika komanso zogwira ntchito bwino, ndipo akuyembekezeka kuti zinthu zogwira mtima komanso zanzeru zidzawonekera mtsogolo.
Ⅲ Zotsatira ndi chiyembekezo cha mabizinesi omwe ali pansi pa mtsinje pa COVID-19
Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa Mysteel, pali mavuto angapo omwe akukumana nawo pambuyo pake:
1. Zotsatira za ndondomeko; 2. Kusakwanira kwa ogwira ntchito; 3. Kuchepa kwa magwiridwe antchito; 4. Kupanikizika kwachuma; 5. Mavuto a mayendedwe
Ponena za nthawi, poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha, zimatenga masiku 12-15 kuti zotsatira zake ziyambe kugwira ntchito, ndipo zimatenga nthawi yayitali kuti magwiridwe antchito abwererenso. Chodetsa nkhawa kwambiri ndi momwe zinthu zimakhudzira kupanga, kupatulapo magawo okhudzana ndi zomangamanga, zidzakhala zovuta kuwona kusintha kulikonse posachedwa.
Chidule cha Ⅳ
Ponseponse, zotsatira za mliriwu ndi zochepa poyerekeza ndi chaka cha 2020. Kuchokera pakupanga kwa zitsulo, zida zapakhomo, makina ndi mafakitale ena a terminal, zinthu zomwe zilipo pano zabwerera pang'onopang'ono kukhala zabwinobwino kuchokera pamlingo wotsika kumayambiriro kwa mwezi, kuchuluka kwa zinthu zopangira zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito tsiku ndi tsiku kwawonjezeka kwambiri poyerekeza ndi kumayambiriro kwa mwezi, ndipo momwe zinthu zilili pa oda yakwera kwambiri. Ponseponse, ngakhale kuti makampani a terminal akhudzidwa ndi COVID-19 posachedwapa, zotsatira zake sizofunika kwenikweni, ndipo liwiro lobwezeretsa zinthu pambuyo potsegula lingapitirire zomwe zimayembekezeredwa.
Nthawi yotumizira: Julayi-21-2022
